Can we all live longer in the future?
There are about a hundred theories of aging, but all of them express two opposing positions, in one way or another. The first says that aging is a programmed, inevitable process. The second states that aging is preventable, and we all could “live forever”. Looking back at the history of the mankind, one could tell that, most likely, the aging process is somewhat predetermined. To the date, we have not seen people living forever. At some point, our biological adaptation system stops correcting errors and repairing breakdowns that occur in cells as the life goes on. So, aging is a result of errors that happens to our cells [1]. Yet in the era of total digitalization and genetic engineering old age stops looking so fatal. The process of rejuvenation can be looked at as cleansing the body of old cells. What happens when the immune system becomes less effective and fails to enforce a programmed apoptosis to old cells that stop dividing? Okay, clearly this is bad when the cleansing stops, but it sounds like something that people can deal with. Let’s see what technologies are on offer.
One of popular theories of aging focuses on senescent cells that are growth-arrested cells that cause inflammation and play a causal role in aging. Senescent cells demonstrate the senescence-associated secretory phenotype, producing a mix of molecules that trigger chronic inflammation and tissue dysfunction. Addressing this issue, a number of novel senolytics biotech companies focus on various means of selectively destroying the senescent cells that accumulate with age. This is the logic behind technology provided by Unity Biotechnology (USA), among a handful of other companies in the sector [2]. They developed a method to selectively eliminate senescent cells using senolytic drugs. According to the researchers, this technique prevents age-related diseases and literally turns back the clock as tissues return to their healthy state.
They are using advances in molecular biology to increase life expectancy, and more specifically, the period of time when a person is healthy. So far, Unity Biotechnology tested its drug on people with osteoarthritis. However, the company’s experts are confident that senolytics can improve the condition of the heart, lungs, eyes, and even restore some cognitive functions. In general, to prevent or correct all those things that we used to perceive as processes that inevitably accompany aging. According to independent experts, the Aging theory, based on the accumulation of senescent cells, and the development of senolytic drugs hold a certain promise.
Peter Diamandis, founder of the X-Prize Foundation and co-founder of Singularity University [3], is confident that in just 30-50 years, a centenarian will feel 60, and people will live up to 150 years. His X-Prize Foundation supports breakthrough technologies that are aimed at improving the lives of the entire humankind. Their research received multiple awards in several categories, including those related to solving of the aging problem. In addition to the Foundation and Singularity University, Diamandis founded Human Longevity Inc. As part of the “Health Nucleus” program, physicians fully examine the patient’s genome and perform full-body MRI scan. Using machine learning, experts analyze all the data received and provide their understanding of the patient body’s processes. According to the researchers, this allows to detect health problems at an early stage.
However, other theory and its adepts suggest that Diamandis’ forecasts are too optimistic. According to calculations, by the end of the 21st century, the average human life expectancy on the planet will be around 90-100 years. This prognosis assumes that genetics is one of the key factors underlying longevity [4]. According to prolonged records, the longer a person lives, the greater the genetic background of her longevity. If somebody lives to be 90-95 years old, as a rule, it is not accidental. So, there is heredity and some kind of genetic basis, and the outliers are rare.
Scientists have indeed discovered over 500 genes that are associated with lifespan. In the future, researchers will be able to synthesize one or more of these genes and integrate them into the human genome using, for example, CRISPR / Cas9 technology. However, while theoretically such a project is feasible, at the same time, even the present “longevity gene” may not be activated, or there can be a gene for the age of the associated disease, which can “turn on”. Finding ways to influence gene expression is another promising area for researchers.
According to Peter Diamandis, in the near future, procedures using stem cells will be carried out everywhere. In the first place, they are necessary for the treatment of degenerative and autoimmune diseases. However, in the future, whole organs will be grown from stem cells. The futurologist suggests taking these cells from the placenta, which is discarded after childbirth in 99.9% of cases. He insists that stem cells from a single placenta can be enough for hundreds or even thousands of people.
The idea of using stem cells is not new, as well as the idea of rejuvenation that goes back several thousand years. In 2016, the founder of a start-up Ambrosia Jesse Karmazin offered wealthy businessmen – mainly from the Silicon Valley – to transfuse the plasma of the young people’s plasma transfusion. Each procedure cost $ 8 thousand. However, in the spring of 2019, the US Food and Drug Administration announced that the technology has no clinically proven benefits. A few hours later, Ambrosia spokesman announced that the company will be dissolved, but in 2019 it was reported that they were back in business [5].
New start-ups appear on the market almost every week, developing innovative methods of fighting aging. For example, the Cellularity project has raised about $ 250 million in investment to research the effects of stem cells on rejuvenation. British investor Jim Mellon promised that the medical developments of his startup Juvenescence will help everyone overcome the 120-year milestone [6]. According to him, this will be possible thanks to drugs that prevent many age-related diseases – neurodegenerative, heart, joints, etc. Even the demise of Ambrosia has not pull the plug on the research into the effects of young blood for geriatric patients – for example, a clinical trial is underway at Stanford University (USA), in which scientists are trying to find out if injections of child plasma can help patients with Alzheimer’s disease.
According to Statista, by 2026 the global market for anti-aging products reach $88 billion [7]. Peter Diamandis argues that extending active life expectancy even by 20-30 years will have a tremendous impact on this market. It is already developing at an unprecedented speed, constantly offering the consumer new developments. For example, the supercomputer IBM Watson uses deep machine learning and neural networks to find ways to treat cancer and other diseases, including age-related ones. And digital models of human organs in virtual projection fully convey the appearance of a real organ. This helps surgeons hone new skills for them, consolidate the accuracy and complexity of the procedure, and minimize the likelihood of error…
…This list of advancements and achievements can go on and on, but will these technologies be available to all, or just to a privileged class? In other words, how much will it cost? The costs of human genome transcription are in the region of $1000, yet not covered by any health insurance policies or National Health services, so you can expect to pay at least that amount. And the rest is still a mystery, but the price tag on the controversial Ambrosia’s treatment ($8000) seems like a good guess. Which makes it unlikely to include wide masses.
Regarding the timeline – the pioneering companies, like X-Prize Foundation, provide a rough estimate of 30-50 years. In the end, those who are genetically pre-disposed to longer life span will most likely benefit from these technologies – because they will live to see it. And the descendants of “short-livers” if they still will be interested.
References:
1. J. Tower, Programmed cell death in aging, Ageing Res Rev. 2015 Sep; 23(Pt A): 90–100. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4480161/
2. Rearson, A Review of Senolytics Biotech Companies, Fightaging.org, December 22nd, 2020,
https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2020/12/a-review-of-senolytics-biotech-companies/
3. S. Buhr, With $250 million, Peter Diamandis’ new startup is all about taking stem cells from placentas, Techcrunch.com, February 2018, https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/15/peter-diamandis-new-startup-is-all-about-taking-stem-cells-from-placentas-so-we-can-live-forever
4. K. Christensen, T.E. Johnson, & J.W. Vaupel, The quest for genetic determinants of human longevity: challenges and insights, Nat Rev Genet. 2006 Jun; 7(6): 436–448. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2726954/
5. E. Mullin, EXCLUSIVE: Ambrosia, the Young Blood Transfusion Startup, Is Quietly Back in Business, onezero. Onezero.com, Nov 8, 2019, https://onezero.medium.com/exclusive-ambrosia-the-young-blood-transfusion-startup-is-quietly-back-in-business-ee2b7494b417
6. Rearson, A Rate of Living Approach to the Concept of Programmed Aging, Fightaging.org, January 5th, 2020, https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2020/01/fight-aging-newsletter-january-6th-2020/
7. Statista, Size of the anti-aging market worldwide from 2020 to 2026,
https://www.statista.com/statistics/509679/value-of-the-global-anti-aging-market/